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Analysis of Big Three Races

John Hawkins delivers excellent analysis of the big three races on which so much depends:

In the New Jersey Governor's race, it's a three way fight between incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine, Republican Chris Christie, and independent Chris Daggett.

New Jersey has been a heartbreaking state for Republicans because time after time, in race after race, the GOP candidates have started off strong only to be swamped by the Democrats at the end of the race.

Further complicating matters in this race, independent Chris Daggett is draining off support for Christie.

Looking at the polling numbers, what you find is that Corzine is consistently polling in the 40-43% range while Daggett is polling at roughly 10%. That means Corzine's top number is probably somewhere between 43% and 46% of the electorate. In a two way race, he would be dead meat.
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