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Geraghty Looks at Some Major Poll Swings

Jim Geraghty over at the Campaign Spot really delves into the poll numbers and thinks they might just be overestimating Democrats by a tad or even two.

When I look at a poll's sample, and conclude that the sample includes a lot more Democrats than Republicans, I'm not quite saying that it's an ironclad, take-it-to-the-bank guarantee that the poll is overstating the performance of the Democratic candidate on Election Day. From cycle to cycle, the partisan makeup of the electorate changes. It shifted three percent in favor of the Democrats from 2004 to 2006. It could, and in fact probably will, move further in the Democrats' direction this year; the question is, how much?
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